Methodology

Where every number on this site comes from

Most energy savings estimates are a black box. You put in a zip code, a number comes out, and there is no way to check it. This page is the opposite of that: every figure shown anywhere on ElectrifyNow traces back to an assumption published here, and every assumption traces back to a document you can open and read yourself.

This page is not written by hand. It is generated from the same configuration file the graphs read from, so the two cannot drift apart. If a rate changes, this page and every graph on the site move together — and if a number is ever added without a citation, the site fails to build rather than publishing it.

Rates effective
2026-06-01
Page last updated
Figures describe
San Francisco

1. Energy prices

Four prices drive everything on this site: what a therm of gas costs, what a gallon of gasoline costs, what a kilowatt-hour costs on PG&E's E-ELEC plan, and what a kilowatt-hour costs when you generated it yourself. Change one of these and every graph on the site changes with it.

Prices are the ones in effect on 2026-06-01. Utility rates move; if you are reading this long after that date, treat the figures as indicative and check the linked tariffs.

Energy prices used sitewide — effective 2026-06-01
EnergyPriceNotesSource
Natural gas — PG&E 2.78 $/therm PG&E bundled residential non-CARE rate, all-in (delivery, public purpose surcharges and generation). Not split by baseline tier: a household heating with gas runs over baseline for much of the winter, so the bundled average is the honest figure to price a heating load at. This is the PG&E figure and also the one SMUD households pay, because Sacramento gas is PG&E territory; see natural_gas_socalgas and natural_gas_sdge for the other two providers. Pacific Gas and Electric Company — PG&E gas rates are decreasing January 1, 2026 (Advice Letter 5160-G)
Natural gas — SoCalGas 2.08 $/therm SoCalGas bundled residential average rate, on the same all-in basis as the PG&E figure: transportation, Public Purpose Program surcharge and gas commodity. This is the gas price in both SCE and LADWP territory, neither of which sells gas. It is the cheapest gas in the state by a wide margin -- about 75% of PG&E's -- which is why a Southern California gas-to-heat-pump swap saves materially less than the same swap in the Bay Area, and why a single statewide gas rate would have flattered the south and penalised the north. Southern California Gas Company — Rate Alert for January 2026: Natural Gas Rate Increase (Advice Letter 6578-G)
Natural gas — SDG&E 2.74 $/therm SDG&E bundled residential average rate, same all-in basis again. Close to PG&E's and far above its SoCalGas neighbour's, despite SDG&E buying gas through the same Sempra system -- the difference is transportation and public purpose surcharges, not commodity cost. San Diego Gas & Electric — Rate Alert for January 2026: Natural Gas Rate Increase Alert (Advice Letter 3483-G)
Gasoline — San Francisco 5.54 $/gallon San Francisco monthly average retail price, all grades, all formulations, including taxes. California statewide was $5.417 and the US average $4.064 in the same month, which is why we use the San Francisco figure rather than a national one. Used for Northern California, which here means PG&E and SMUD territory. U.S. Energy Information Administration — Retail prices for gasoline, all grades, all formulations, San Francisco (monthly)
Gasoline — Los Angeles 5.36 $/gallon Los Angeles monthly average retail price, same series and the SAME MONTH as the San Francisco figure, so the north/south comparison is not an artefact of comparing two different months of a volatile series. Used for Southern California: SCE, SDG&E and LADWP territory. Los Angeles runs about 17.5 cents a gallon below San Francisco, so petrol is the one fuel where the south is cheaper but not dramatically so -- unlike gas, where the gap is large. U.S. Energy Information Administration — Retail prices for gasoline, all grades, all formulations, Los Angeles (monthly)
Electricity — PG&E E-ELEC (electrification) 0.309 $/kWh PG&E's ELECTRIFICATION schedule, E-ELEC. Blended volumetric rate for a household that schedules its flexible loads off-peak. Excludes the Base Services Charge and the California Climate Credit (see the fixed-charge caveat), and assumes PG&E generation rather than CleanPowerSF. E-ELEC requires a qualifying appliance -- a heat pump, an EV or a battery -- so this rate is only available to a household that has already electrified something. Schedule E-ELEC, effective 2026-03-01, Base Services Charge $0.79343/day. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Residential inclusive time-of-use current rates, Schedule E-ELEC
Electricity — PG&E E-TOU-C (today) 0.355 $/kWh PG&E's DEFAULT residential schedule, E-TOU-C, which is what a household that has not electrified anything is actually on today. Peak is 4-9pm every day including weekends. Higher than E-ELEC despite being the ordinary rate, because E-TOU-C's off-peak price is well above E-ELEC's and it has no cheap overnight window -- which is the whole point of E-ELEC. The 4.6 cent/kWh gap between this and electric_eelec is the rate switch, and it applies to the lights and the laundry as well as the new heat pump. Schedule E-TOU-C, effective 2026-03-01, Base Services Charge $0.79343/day. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Residential rate plan pricing: E-1, E-TOU-C, E-TOU-D, E-ELEC, EV2-A and EV-B
Electricity — SCE TOU-D PRIME (electrification) 0.285 $/kWh SCE's ELECTRIFICATION schedule, Schedule TOU-D Option PRIME, which SCE describes as intended for higher-usage customers with load-modifying electric technologies -- EVs, behind-the-meter storage and/or heat pumps. Option PRIME has no baseline credit, so the price does not depend on how much is used; in exchange its off-peak price is the lowest of any SCE residential option. Schedule TOU-D Option PRIME, Basic Charge $0.79/day. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Time-of-use residential rate plans: TOU-D-4-9PM, TOU-D-5-8PM and TOU-D-PRIME
Electricity — SCE TOU-D 4-9PM (today) 0.334 $/kWh SCE's DEFAULT residential time-of-use schedule, TOU-D Option 4-9PM, net of its baseline credit. Unlike Option PRIME this one does carry a baseline credit of about 9.5 cents/kWh on usage up to the baseline allocation, which is why the figure is well below the headline prices: before the credit the same blend is $0.381. A household that stays on 4-9PM after electrifying loses much of that credit anyway, because the extra load pushes them further above baseline -- another reason the switch to PRIME is the rational move and not just a cheaper sticker. Schedule TOU-D Option 4-9PM, Basic Charge $0.79/day. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Time-of-use residential rate plans: TOU-D-4-9PM, TOU-D-5-8PM and TOU-D-PRIME
Electricity — SDG&E TOU-ELEC (electrification) 0.356 $/kWh SDG&E's ELECTRIFICATION schedule, Schedule TOU-ELEC, which is explicitly for households with an EV, a behind-the-meter storage device, or an electric heat pump for water heating or climate control. No baseline credit. Schedule TOU-ELEC, effective 2026-06-01, Base Services Charge $0.79343/day. Note this rate replaced TOU-ELEC's old flat $16/month service fee with the same statewide Base Services Charge every other IOU schedule now carries. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Schedule TOU-ELEC total rates table, domestic time-of-use for households with electric vehicles, energy storage, or electric heat pumps
Electricity — SDG&E TOU-DR1 (today) 0.452 $/kWh SDG&E's DEFAULT residential schedule, TOU-DR1, net of its baseline credit -- SDG&E's own tariff sheet says a typical household is most likely on this rate. At $0.452 this is the most expensive default electricity in the state, and the 9.6 cent/kWh gap to TOU-ELEC is by far the largest rate switch of the five utilities: an SDG&E household saves more from changing schedule than a PG&E household saves from changing schedule and fuel. Before the baseline credit the same blend is $0.505. Schedule TOU-DR1, effective 2026-06-01, Base Services Charge $0.79343/day. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Schedule TOU-DR1 total rates table, residential time of use service
Electricity — SMUD R-TOD (electrification) 0.145 $/kWh SMUD's standard Time-of-Day (5-8 p.m.) rate priced on a load-shifting household. NOT a separate electrification schedule -- SMUD has none, so this is the same Rate Schedule R-TOD as electric_smud_default and the 1.2 cent/kWh difference is load shifting alone. Do not present it as a rate switch. Excludes the Plug-In Electric Vehicle Credit of -$0.0150/kWh, which a household with a registered EV does also get, and which is a real electrification benefit on this schedule. System Infrastructure Fixed Charge $27.00/month, rate column effective 2026-01-01. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Residential Time-of-Day Service, Rate Schedule R-TOD
Electricity — SMUD R-TOD (today) 0.157 $/kWh The same SMUD Time-of-Day (5-8 p.m.) rate priced on today's unshifted household. SMUD is far and away the cheapest electricity in the set -- under half of PG&E's default -- because it is a municipal utility with no shareholder return to fund. That makes electrification look excellent on running cost in Sacramento and is worth stating plainly rather than burying, because the same heat pump saves a Sacramento household much more than a San Diego one. System Infrastructure Fixed Charge $27.00/month, rate column effective 2026-01-01. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Residential Time-of-Day Service, Rate Schedule R-TOD
Electricity — LADWP R-1B (electrification) 0.243 $/kWh LADWP Rate Schedule R-1B, the opt-in residential time-of-use rate, priced on a load-shifting household. R-1B is NOT electrification-gated -- any residential customer may elect it -- so while the move from R-1A is a genuine schedule change with a genuine saving, it is not something electrifying makes newly possible. Monthly service charge $12.00, which is materially LOWER than R-1A's tier-three Power Access Charge. Base rates effective 2019-07-01 with quarterly adjustment factors. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Residential electric rates, Rate Schedule R-1A and Rate Schedule R-1B
Electricity — LADWP R-1A (today) 0.258 $/kWh LADWP Rate Schedule R-1A, the default residential rate, which is TIERED rather than time-of-use -- the only schedule in this file with no time-of-day structure at all, so no load-shifting assumption enters it and only the tier blend does. Its monthly Power Access Charge is itself tiered at $2.30, $7.90 and $22.70, so a household that electrifies and climbs into tier three pays a higher fixed charge for staying on R-1A -- the one place in this file where the fixed charge genuinely moves against the household. Base rates effective 2019-07-01 with quarterly adjustment factors. ElectrifyNow analysis, from Residential electric rates, Rate Schedule R-1A and Rate Schedule R-1B
Electricity — self-consumed solar 0.000 $/kWh The marginal cost of a kilowatt-hour you have already generated and consume yourself. This is a definition rather than a measurement, which is why it is the one number on this site with no citation -- and why it carries the caveat below wherever it appears. Distinct from solar_generation_cost, which is what producing that kilowatt-hour costs over the life of the array; both are real numbers answering different questions, and this one is the right one for pricing a marginal load. no source required
Solar — generic cost per kWh generated 0.110 $/kWh ElectrifyNow estimate — ElectrifyNow generic residential solar pricing estimate, 2026 California
Solar — share of annual load a roof covers 0.600 fraction of annual load ElectrifyNow estimate — ElectrifyNow generic residential solar pricing estimate, 2026 California
Energy prices — assumed annual rise, above inflation 0.020 fraction per year, real How fast we assume energy prices rise ABOVE general inflation, applied to every fuel equally in the payback arithmetic. Not a price and not a forecast: it is the one modelling choice in this file that is about the future rather than about today, which is why it carries an assumption source rather than a document. It is applied in real terms because the payback calculation does not discount -- escalating at a nominal rate while counting undiscounted future dollars would flatter every payback figure twice over. Two percent a year compounds to roughly a fifth over a decade, which shortens the whole-home payback by about a year and a half against holding prices flat. ElectrifyNow assumption — ElectrifyNow energy-price escalation assumption: 2% a year in real terms

One of those four rates is not a measurement. The cost of a kilowatt-hour of solar you generate and consume yourself is $0 by definition — the electricity exists whether you use it or not, so using it costs nothing at the margin. That is a real and useful way to think about a solar home's running costs, and it is also very easy to misread. The solar caveat below sets out exactly what it does and does not mean.

2. Assumptions and arithmetic

For each of the technologies we cover, this section shows three things: what we assume an average San Francisco single-family home consumes today, what efficiency we assume at both ends of the swap, and the step-by-step arithmetic that converts fuel into kilowatt-hours. The steps are there so you can redo the sum on paper and get the same answer we did.

Two conversion factors appear throughout and are not assumptions at all, just unit arithmetic: one therm is 100,000 Btu, which is 29.307 kilowatt-hours of energy. Everything else on this page is an assumption with a source attached.

A note on efficiency, because it is where the whole argument lives. A gas appliance can never deliver more energy than it burns, and in practice delivers considerably less once flue and duct losses are counted. A heat pump does not create heat, it moves heat, so it can deliver two to four units of warmth per unit of electricity it draws. That gap is why electricity costing more per unit of energy than gas does not settle the question.

Space heating

Assumes an average San Francisco single-family home burning 116 therms a year on space heating, through a furnace about 10 years old: 80% AFUE on the label, delivering about 72% of that fuel energy into the living space once duct losses are taken off. The age is our assumption about a typical replacement-age system, and the derating from 80% to 72% is our engineering judgement rather than a measured figure — both are stated so they can be argued with.

Inputs
AssumptionValueSource
Annual gas use (therms) 116 ElectrifyNow analysis, from 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)
Delivered efficiency of the existing gas appliance 0.72 ElectrifyNow analysis, from 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)
Heat pump seasonal COP 3.7 ElectrifyNow analysis, from 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)
Age assumed for the gas appliance being replaced (years) 10 ElectrifyNow assumption — ElectrifyNow assumed vintage of the gas equipment a household is replacing: about 10 years old
Nameplate efficiency of that appliance when new (AFUE or EF) 0.8 ElectrifyNow assumption — ElectrifyNow assumed vintage of the gas equipment a household is replacing: about 10 years old

How we get from fuel to kilowatt-hours

  1. 116 therms/yr burned
  2. x 29.307 kWh/therm = 3400 kWh of gas energy
  3. x 0.72 delivered efficiency = 2448 kWh of heat actually delivered
  4. / 3.7 seasonal COP = 662 kWh/yr of electricity
Resulting annual cost
ScenarioArithmeticAnnual cost
Today, on natural gas 116.0 therms × 2.784 $/therm $323
Electric, on E-ELEC 662 kWh × 0.309 $/kWh $204
Electric, on self-consumed solar 662 kWh × 0.00 $/kWh $0

Time of use: Assumes the heat pump runs mostly off-peak. Heating load in San Francisco concentrates in the morning and overnight rather than in the 4-9pm peak window, so this is a reasonable assumption for most homes.

Water heating

Assumes an average San Francisco single-family home burning 257 therms a year on hot water, through a gas tank about 10 years old: 0.60 EF on the label, delivering about 55% of that fuel energy as hot water once standby and flue losses are taken off. The age is our assumption about a typical replacement-age tank, and the derating from 0.60 to 0.55 is our engineering judgement rather than a measured figure. Hot water is the largest gas end use in most San Francisco homes — bigger than heating.

Inputs
AssumptionValueSource
Annual gas use (therms) 257 ElectrifyNow analysis, from 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)
Delivered efficiency of the existing gas appliance 0.55 ElectrifyNow analysis, from 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)
Heat pump seasonal COP 2.3 ElectrifyNow analysis, from Heat Pump Water Heater Field Study Report
Age assumed for the gas appliance being replaced (years) 10 ElectrifyNow assumption — ElectrifyNow assumed vintage of the gas equipment a household is replacing: about 10 years old
Nameplate efficiency of that appliance when new (AFUE or EF) 0.6 ElectrifyNow assumption — ElectrifyNow assumed vintage of the gas equipment a household is replacing: about 10 years old

How we get from fuel to kilowatt-hours

  1. 257 therms/yr burned
  2. x 29.307 kWh/therm = 7532 kWh of gas energy
  3. x 0.55 delivered efficiency = 4143 kWh of heat actually delivered
  4. / 2.3 seasonal COP = 1801 kWh/yr of electricity
Resulting annual cost
ScenarioArithmeticAnnual cost
Today, on natural gas 257.0 therms × 2.784 $/therm $715
Electric, on E-ELEC 1801 kWh × 0.309 $/kWh $557
Electric, on self-consumed solar 1801 kWh × 0.00 $/kWh $0

Time of use: Assumes the tank heats off-peak. Heat pump water heaters hold 50-80 gallons, so they can be scheduled to reheat overnight and coast through the 4-9pm peak — but only if the schedule is actually set up that way.

Driving

Assumes one car driven 10,535 miles a year — the California average — replacing a vehicle that achieves the in-use fleet average of 25.6 mpg rather than a new-car sticker figure, and charged at home. No age is assumed for the car, because none is needed: 25.6 mpg is what the fleet on the road actually achieves across every vintage in it, which is a measured figure and a better answer than a vintage we would have had to guess. Public fast charging costs considerably more than home charging and is not modelled here.

Inputs
AssumptionValueSource
Annual miles driven 10535 ElectrifyNow analysis, from Highway Statistics 2024, Table VM-2 (state vehicle-miles) and Table MV-1 (state motor-vehicle registrations)
Fuel economy of the vehicle being replaced (mpg) 25.6 Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation — Highway Statistics 2024, Table VM-1: annual vehicle distance traveled in miles and related data
EV efficiency (miles per kWh) 3.3 ElectrifyNow analysis, from Fuel economy and EV range testing; fuel economy of 2026 electric vehicles

How we get from fuel to kilowatt-hours

  1. 10535 miles/yr driven
  2. / 25.6 mpg fleet average = 412 gallons/yr of gasoline
  3. / 3.3 miles per kWh = 3192 kWh/yr of electricity
Resulting annual cost
ScenarioArithmeticAnnual cost
Today, on gasoline 411.5 gallons × 5.539 $/gallon $2,279
Electric, on E-ELEC 3192 kWh × 0.309 $/kWh $986
Electric, on self-consumed solar 3192 kWh × 0.00 $/kWh $0

Time of use: Assumes overnight home charging on off-peak hours. This is the single easiest load to shift — nearly every EV and home charger can be scheduled — but it does have to be scheduled, and charging during the 4-9pm peak costs substantially more.

3. What these numbers do not include

There are four things every figure on this site leaves out or simplifies. They are stated alongside every graph, and they are stated again here in full, because a comparison is only honest if you know what it excludes. Two of them — time of use and solar — would make our numbers wrong rather than merely incomplete if you missed them.

  • 1. E-ELEC is a time-of-use rate, not a flat price

    E-ELEC is a time-of-use rate, not a flat price. This assumes the load runs mostly off-peak (before 3pm or after 9pm). Running it during the 4–9pm peak costs roughly twice as much in summer.

    Why it matters: the single electricity price used across this site is a blend, and that blend assumes a household that actually schedules its flexible loads — EV charging overnight, the water heater reheating before the evening, the heat pump not playing catch-up at 6pm. Most of that scheduling is a one-time setup in an app, and most people never do it. If you do not, your electric costs will land above what these graphs show, and the shortfall is not small. We assume 85% of the shiftable load runs off-peak, 10% partial-peak and 5% peak; the full derivation, including the sensitivity band, is in the blended E-ELEC rate source.

  • 2. $0 solar is a marginal cost, not a payback

    $0 is the marginal cost of solar you generate and use yourself. It is not system payback, and it is not the export credit value of power you send back to the grid.

    Why it matters: the solar bar on every graph answers one narrow question — what does this appliance add to your bill if the electricity comes off your own roof while it is running? The answer is nothing, because you already paid for that electricity when you bought the array. What the bar does not include is the cost of the array itself, the financing on it, or the fact that a heat pump running at 6am in January is not being fed by the sun. Nor does it include what you would have earned by exporting that power instead; under California's current net billing tariff, export credits are low enough that self-consumption is usually worth more, but it is not zero. Read the solar bar as "the best case, once the panels are paid for" and it is useful. Read it as a return on a solar investment and it is misleading. We do not model solar payback on this site, and we will not pretend the graph does.

  • 3. Fixed charges are excluded on both sides

    These figures compare the cost of the energy itself. They exclude fixed charges on both sides — PG&E's Base Services Charge of about $24 a month on electricity, and the gas service charge. Going all-electric lets you drop the gas meter and its standing charge entirely, so leaving both out understates the saving rather than overstating it.

    Why it matters: this is the one caveat that runs in your favour, which is exactly why we would rather point it out than quietly bank it. Standing charges are not a function of how much energy an appliance uses, so including them would muddy a per-appliance comparison. But the moment the last gas appliance leaves the house, you can close the gas account and stop paying its standing charge for good — a real annual saving that none of our graphs counts. Equally, the California Climate Credit is excluded, and that is also money in your pocket that we do not show.

  • 4. Most SF homes buy generation from CleanPowerSF, not PG&E

    Most San Francisco homes buy their electricity generation from CleanPowerSF, the city's community choice aggregator, while PG&E still delivers it. These figures use PG&E's bundled rate. CleanPowerSF's generation charge differs, so your actual rate will be close to but not identical to this.

    Why it matters: your bill has two halves. PG&E owns the wires and charges you for delivery no matter what; the generation half is supplied by CleanPowerSF unless you opted out. Our blended rate is built from PG&E's published bundled tariff, which is the rate we can cite precisely. The practical effect is a difference of cents per kilowatt-hour rather than a different answer to whether electrifying pays — but it is a real difference, and it is the reason your own bill will not match these figures to the dollar.

4. What we are least sure of

A site whose entire pitch is transparency should be willing to say which of its own numbers are the shakiest. These are ours. Some are published statistics we have adjusted for San Francisco's climate; some are engineering judgement standing in for a source we have not yet found; one is an assumption about how people behave rather than a measurement of anything.

None of them are hidden in a footnote, and none of them change the direction of the answer. But if you want to know where to push back on us, push here first.

  • Blended E-ELEC rate for an off-peak-shifted household — medium confidence. The rate components are published and exact. The 85/10/5 load mix is our assumption about household behaviour, not a measurement, and it is the single figure on this site that most rewards scepticism. A household that does not schedule its loads will pay more than this.
  • Blended E-TOU-C rate for a household that has not electrified — medium confidence. The published prices are exact but rounded to the cent by PG&E. The two assumptions on top of them -- a 25/75 unshifted load split and a household sitting half above baseline -- are ours. A household entirely within its baseline allocation pays nearer $0.325, and one well above nearer $0.385, so the rate-switch saving against E-ELEC could reasonably be anywhere from about 1.6 to 7.6 cents/kWh.
  • Time-of-use residential rate plans: TOU-D-4-9PM, TOU-D-5-8PM and TOU-D-PRIME — medium confidence.
  • Blended TOU-D Option PRIME rate for an off-peak-shifted household — medium confidence. SCE publishes these prices rounded to the cent on a customer-facing page rather than as tariff-sheet components to five decimal places, which is why this carries less precision than the PG&E and SDG&E derivations. Averaging winter off-peak and super off-peak is our simplification; a household charging entirely in the 8am-4pm super-off-peak window would do better than $0.285. This figure also contradicts the 'roughly $0.37/kWh' for SCE named in report-pipeline-plan.md, which is much closer to SCE's residential AVERAGE -- the flat res_rate of 0.36 in ca_iou_rates.csv -- than to a TOU-aware blend of Option PRIME, and is the exact conflation the plan itself warns against.
  • Blended TOU-D Option 4-9PM rate for a household that has not electrified — medium confidence. The baseline credit is the weak point: SCE's own page states about 9c/kWh and a secondary summary states 10c, so we use 9.5c, and the figure moves by half a cent for every cent that estimate is wrong. The half-below-baseline assumption matters more -- a household entirely within baseline would see about $0.286 and one entirely above $0.381, which spans the whole rate-switch saving.
  • Blended TOU-ELEC rate for an off-peak-shifted household — medium confidence. The rate components are published to five decimal places and exact. Only the 85/10/5 load mix is ours, and it is the same assumption applied to every utility in this file.
  • Blended TOU-DR1 rate for a household that has not electrified — medium confidence. The rate components and the credit are published and exact; the 25/75 load split and the half-within-baseline assumption are ours. Unusually, SDG&E's winter off-peak prices exceed its summer ones, so the season weighting pushes this figure UP rather than down -- the opposite of every other utility here. That is what the tariff sheet says, and we have taken it at face value.
  • SMUD Time-of-Day rate for a load-shifting household — medium confidence. Rate components are published and exact; the load mix is ours. This figure excludes the -$0.0150/kWh Plug-In Electric Vehicle Credit, which would take an EV-owning household to about $0.130 -- so for SMUD the EV credit is worth more than all the load shifting, and it is the one electrification-specific benefit the territory has.
  • SMUD Time-of-Day rate for today's unshifted household — medium confidence. Rate components published and exact; the 15/20/65 unshifted load mix is ours, and a narrower peak window makes the split less sensitive than it is on the IOU schedules.
  • Residential electric rates, Rate Schedule R-1A and Rate Schedule R-1B — medium confidence.
  • Blended LADWP R-1B time-of-use rate for a load-shifting household — low confidence. Two weaknesses. The prices are LADWP's own but are published as a base rate effective July 2019 plus adjustment factors revised quarterly, so the set we have is a snapshot rather than a dated tariff sheet and will drift; it needs re-checking each quarter. And R-1B's high-peak and low-peak prices are identical for eight months of the year, so the load mix barely matters -- which makes the figure robust to our assumption but also means the schedule offers a shifting household much less than a real time-of-use rate would.
  • Blended LADWP R-1A default tiered rate — low confidence. Same quarterly-adjustment-factor weakness as R-1B. The 60/40 tier split is ours and is the main lever: an all-tier-1 household sits near $0.238 and a half-tier-3 household well above $0.300. Note also that electrifying pushes a household up the tiers, so R-1A's effective price RISES for the electrified home while R-1B's does not -- the tier structure, not just the per-kWh price, is what makes the switch worthwhile, and a model that blends R-1A at a fixed 60/40 on both sides of the comparison will understate that.
  • ElectrifyNow energy-price escalation assumption: 2% a year in real terms — low confidence. An assumption about the next twenty years of California utility ratemaking. It cannot be verified, only judged, and it moves every payback figure on the site. We have deliberately chosen a figure below the recent observed trend rather than at it, so the error we are most likely to be making is the conservative one.
  • ElectrifyNow generic residential solar pricing estimate, 2026 California — low confidence. Both figures are our judgement and both move the solar column directly. The self-consumption fraction is the weaker of the two and also disagrees with the 0.90 solar offset hardcoded in lib/engine/ledger.js, which needs reconciling in the engine.
  • ElectrifyNow assumed vintage of the gas equipment a household is replacing: about 10 years old — low confidence. The age itself is a choice, not a finding, and the report should be read as describing a typical replacement-age system rather than the reader's own. The weaker half is the in-use efficiency that goes with it: we have not found a published measurement of what a ten-year-old furnace or tank actually delivers in service, so that derating remains our own judgement and is flagged as such wherever it appears.
  • Space heating gas use, San Francisco single-family home — medium confidence. Under review: RASS publishes results by forecasting climate zone, so there may be a genuine Bay Area breakout we can cite directly instead of adjusting a statewide figure. Until that is confirmed, treat this as our estimate rather than a published statistic.
  • Water heating gas use, San Francisco single-family home — medium confidence. Under review alongside the space heating figure, pending confirmation of a citable Bay Area breakout.
  • Installed heat pump water heater COP, San Francisco — medium confidence. An extrapolation from Pacific Northwest field data to a milder climate. Directionally sound, and conservative against nameplate, but a San Francisco field study would be better evidence.
  • Delivered efficiency of an existing gas water heater — low confidence. Needs a published source for the degradation of aged gas storage tanks. The nameplate EF is well documented; the aging adjustment is our engineering judgement.
  • Delivered efficiency of an existing gas furnace — low confidence. Needs a published duct-loss source, ideally California-specific given Title 24 duct sealing requirements. The direction is not in doubt; the exact figure is our estimate.
  • Seasonal COP of a ducted heat pump in San Francisco — low confidence. Needs a published HSPF2 or seasonal COP figure for CEC climate zone 3. This is currently our own load-weighted estimate.
  • Annual miles driven per vehicle in California — medium confidence. A ratio of two published FHWA figures rather than a published statistic in its own right. Including heavy trucks in both numerator and denominator is a known imperfection; the result lands within 3% of FHWA's published national light-duty figure, which is reassuring.
  • Real-world EV efficiency — medium confidence. No agency publishes a single fleet-average figure for EV efficiency, so choosing 3.3 is a judgement across the mainstream model range. We picked the conservative end deliberately: a more flattering 3.6 would have made the savings look about 9% larger.

Where a figure had a defensible range rather than a single value, we took the conservative end — the one that makes electrifying look worse. That is deliberate. An estimate that turns out to be pessimistic is a much smaller problem for a homeowner than one that turns out to be optimistic.

5. Supporting research

The sections above cover the arithmetic. This section covers the claims underneath it — the efficiency, health and maintenance findings that explain why the arithmetic comes out the way it does. Each one links to a government agency, a peer-reviewed study, or an established research organisation. None of these are our figures; they are other people's, cited so you can check them.

Driving and electric vehicles 5 sources

EV motors convert over 85% of electrical energy into motion, versus less than 40% for gas engines.

Federal (DOE data) NRDC — Electric Vehicle Basics

A typical EV is 87–91% efficient over a real driving cycle, compared with about 30% for a gasoline vehicle.

Federal U.S. Department of Energy — Fact of the Week #1360

EVs require virtually no routine maintenance; EV owners spend about half as much on repairs and maintenance as gas-car owners. We do not include maintenance in any figure on this site, so this saving is on top of the ones we show.

Research org Consumer Reports — EV Ownership Cost Report

Tailpipe pollution (NOx, fine particulates) from vehicles is linked to premature death and cardiovascular and respiratory illness in nearby communities.

Peer-reviewed UNC Institute for the Environment, published in Environmental Research Letters

NOx, particulate matter, carbon monoxide and formaldehyde are federally regulated tailpipe pollutants tied to smog formation and health harm.

Federal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Smog Vehicle Emissions
Space heating and combustion safety 3 sources

Removing a gas furnace eliminates a household's risk of carbon monoxide poisoning from backdrafting or a cracked heat exchanger.

Federal CDC — Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Basics

Gas- and oil-burning furnaces are a documented cause of fatal indoor carbon monoxide poisoning incidents.

Federal CDC MMWR — Residential Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Case Report

Backdrafting occurs when combustion appliances are depressurised indoors, increasing carbon monoxide production and indoor exposure risk.

Technical analysis Energy Vanguard, citing CDC and CPSC data
Water heating 3 sources

ENERGY STAR certified heat pump water heaters use up to 70% less energy than a standard electric resistance water heater.

Federal (EPA/DOE) ENERGY STAR — Heat Pump Water Heater Guide

Heat pump water heaters are up to four times more efficient than conventional electric water heaters, and have a secondary dehumidifying and cooling effect on the space they occupy. Note that our own figures use a measured installed COP of 2.3, not a manufacturer rating — see the water heating assumptions.

Federal (EPA/DOE) ENERGY STAR — HPWH Factsheet, citing a joint Canadian Centre for Housing Technology / National Research Council field study

Water heating is typically the second-largest home energy expense, behind heating and cooling. In San Francisco's mild climate it is usually the largest gas load of all.

Federal (EPA/DOE) ENERGY STAR — Busting Myths About Heat Pump Water Heaters

These are background findings, not the inputs to our calculations. Every number that actually appears in a graph on this site is derived from the rates and assumptions in sections 1 and 2 above, and is listed with its own citation in the source list below.

6. Full source list

Every source behind the rates and assumptions above, in one place. Entries marked ElectrifyNow analysis are figures we derived ourselves; each one names the published document it was derived from and explains the derivation in full, so the chain always terminates at something you can read.

  • PG&E gas rates are decreasing January 1, 2026 (Advice Letter 5160-G)

    Pacific Gas and Electric Company · effective 2026-01-01

    Residential bundled non-CARE rate of $2.784/therm, down from $2.871 as of September 1, 2025.

  • Rate Alert for January 2026: Natural Gas Rate Increase (Advice Letter 6578-G)

    Southern California Gas Company · effective 2026-01-01

    Bundled residential average gas rate -- gas transportation, Public Purpose Program surcharge and gas commodity -- rising about 1 cent/therm (0.6%) from $2.07 to $2.08 per therm, filed 2025-12-29 and pending CPUC approval. Same all-in basis as the PG&E and SDG&E figures. Excludes the April climate credit of $36.06 per household.

  • Rate Alert for January 2026: Natural Gas Rate Increase Alert (Advice Letter 3483-G)

    San Diego Gas & Electric · effective 2026-01-01

    Bundled residential average gas rate -- transportation, public purpose surcharge and commodity -- rising about 4 cents/therm (1.5%) from $2.70 to $2.74 per therm, filed 2025-12-30 and pending CPUC approval. Excludes the April climate credit of $32.58 per household.

  • Residential inclusive time-of-use current rates, Schedule E-ELEC

    Pacific Gas and Electric Company · effective 2026-03-01

    Summer (Jun 1-Sep 30): peak $0.55214, partial-peak $0.39026, off-peak $0.33358 per kWh. Winter (Oct 1-May 31): peak $0.32063, partial-peak $0.29854, off-peak $0.28468 per kWh. Base Services Charge $0.79343/day standard, $0.39688/day FERA, $0.19713/day CARE.

  • Blended E-ELEC rate for an off-peak-shifted household ElectrifyNow analysis

    E-ELEC charges peak 4-9pm (5 hours), partial-peak 3-4pm and 9pm-12am (4 hours) and off-peak 12am-3pm (15 hours), every day of the week. We assume a household that schedules its heat pump, water heater and EV charging runs 85% of that load off-peak, 10% partial-peak and 5% peak -- peak is not zero, because evening cooking, lighting and thermostat recovery are not really shiftable. Summer blend = 0.85(0.33358) + 0.10(0.39026) + 0.05(0.55214) = $0.35018. Winter blend = 0.85(0.28468) + 0.10(0.29854) + 0.05(0.32063) = $0.28786. Weighted by season length, four summer months against eight winter months: (0.35018 + 2 x 0.28786) / 3 = $0.309 per kWh. For sensitivity: charging entirely off-peak gives $0.301, and a looser 70/20/10 mix gives $0.316, so the defensible band is $0.30-$0.32. This 85/10/5 shifted mix and the four-against-eight season weighting are reused for every other electrification schedule in this file, so the five utilities are blended on identical assumptions and are comparable with each other.

    Based on: Pacific Gas and Electric Company — Residential inclusive time-of-use current rates, Schedule E-ELEC

  • Residential rate plan pricing: E-1, E-TOU-C, E-TOU-D, E-ELEC, EV2-A and EV-B

    Pacific Gas and Electric Company · effective 2026-03-01

    E-TOU-C, peak 4-9pm every day. Summer (Jun 1-Sep 30): peak 52c above baseline / 44c below, off-peak 40c above / 32c below. Winter (Oct 1-May 31): peak 40c above / 32c below, off-peak 37c above / 29c below. Tiered plan E-1 for comparison: tier 1 33c, tier 2 41c. The sheet also restates E-ELEC as summer 55c/39c/33c and winter 32c/30c/28c, which matches the E-ELEC tariff source above to the cent and is a useful independent check on it. Prices rounded to the nearest cent by PG&E. The sheet notes E-ELEC carries a Base Services Charge and lowered per-kWh prices as of March 2026.

  • Blended E-TOU-C rate for a household that has not electrified ElectrifyNow analysis

    E-TOU-C is PG&E's default residential schedule, with peak 4-9pm (5 hours) every day including weekends and off-peak the remaining 19 hours. Two differences from the E-ELEC derivation, both deliberate. First, the load is NOT shifted: a household that has not electrified has no heat pump, tank or EV to schedule, and its evening cooking, lighting and television use is when it is. We assume 25% of consumption falls in the 5-hour peak window against 75% off-peak -- above the 21% those hours represent, because the early evening is genuinely load-heavy. Second, E-TOU-C prices above and below baseline rather than applying a credit, so each period is taken at the midpoint of the two, matching the half-above/half-below assumption in the baseline_tiers caveat. Summer: peak (0.52 + 0.44)/2 = 0.48, off-peak (0.40 + 0.32)/2 = 0.36, blend = 0.25(0.48) + 0.75(0.36) = $0.39. Winter: peak (0.40 + 0.32)/2 = 0.36, off-peak (0.37 + 0.29)/2 = 0.33, blend = 0.25(0.36) + 0.75(0.33) = $0.3375. Season-weighted four summer months against eight winter: (0.39 + 2 x 0.3375) / 3 = $0.355 per kWh.

    Based on: Pacific Gas and Electric Company — Residential rate plan pricing: E-1, E-TOU-C, E-TOU-D, E-ELEC, EV2-A and EV-B

  • Time-of-use residential rate plans: TOU-D-4-9PM, TOU-D-5-8PM and TOU-D-PRIME

    Southern California Edison · effective 2026

    TOU-D Option PRIME, Basic Charge $0.79/day, no baseline credit. Summer (Jun-Sep): weekday off-peak 26c, weekday on-peak 61c (4-9pm), weekend mid-peak 39c. Winter (Oct-May): off-peak 30c, super off-peak 24c (8am-4pm), mid-peak 45c (4-9pm). TOU-D Option 4-9PM, Basic Charge $0.79/day, baseline credit about 9c/kWh up to the monthly baseline allocation. Summer: off-peak 33c, weekday on-peak 59c, weekend mid-peak 44c. Winter: off-peak 36c, super off-peak 32c, mid-peak 50c. SCE's residential onsert describes Option PRIME as intended for higher-usage customers with load-modifying electric technologies including EVs, behind-the-meter storage and heat pumps, which is what makes it the electrification schedule.

  • Blended TOU-D Option PRIME rate for an off-peak-shifted household ElectrifyNow analysis

    Same 85/10/5 shifted mix and same four-against-eight season weighting as the E-ELEC derivation, so SCE and PG&E are comparable. Option PRIME has no baseline credit, so no baseline assumption is needed. Summer: off-peak 0.26, partial-peak taken as the weekend 4-9pm mid-peak 0.39, peak 0.61, giving 0.85(0.26) + 0.10(0.39) + 0.05(0.61) = $0.2905. Winter has two cheap periods, off-peak 0.30 and super off-peak 0.24, which we average to 0.27 for the off-peak share, with partial-peak 0.30 and peak 0.45: 0.85(0.27) + 0.10(0.30) + 0.05(0.45) = $0.282. Season-weighted: (0.2905 + 2 x 0.282) / 3 = $0.285 per kWh. Worth noting that this is about 2.4 cents BELOW PG&E's E-ELEC, so SCE has the cheaper electrification schedule of the two large IOUs despite having the more expensive residential average.

    Based on: Southern California Edison — Time-of-use residential rate plans: TOU-D-4-9PM, TOU-D-5-8PM and TOU-D-PRIME

  • Blended TOU-D Option 4-9PM rate for a household that has not electrified ElectrifyNow analysis

    Option 4-9PM is SCE's default residential time-of-use schedule. Unshifted 25/75 peak/off-peak split as in the E-TOU-C derivation. Summer peak blends weekday on-peak 0.59 and weekend mid-peak 0.44 by day count, (5 x 0.59 + 2 x 0.44)/7 = 0.5471, against off-peak 0.33: 0.25(0.5471) + 0.75(0.33) = $0.3843. Winter averages off-peak 0.36 and super off-peak 0.32 to 0.34, against mid-peak 0.50: 0.25(0.50) + 0.75(0.34) = $0.38. Season-weighted: (0.3843 + 2 x 0.38) / 3 = $0.3814 before the baseline credit. Option 4-9PM then credits about 9.5 cents/kWh up to the baseline allocation; applying it to the half of consumption assumed to sit below baseline gives 0.3814 - 0.5(0.095) = $0.334 per kWh.

    Based on: Southern California Edison — Time-of-use residential rate plans: TOU-D-4-9PM, TOU-D-5-8PM and TOU-D-PRIME

  • Schedule TOU-ELEC total rates table, domestic time-of-use for households with electric vehicles, energy storage, or electric heat pumps

    San Diego Gas & Electric · effective 2026-06-01

    Total electric rate, all components. Summer: on-peak $0.71598, off-peak $0.38853, super off-peak $0.34545 per kWh. Winter: on-peak $0.50219, off-peak $0.37682, super off-peak $0.33764 per kWh. No baseline adjustment credit on this schedule. Base Services Charge $0.79343/day standard, $0.39688/day for DRAH and FERA. Eligibility is explicit on the sheet: a registered BEV, PHEV or NGV refuelled at the premises, a behind-the-meter storage device interconnected under Electric Rule 21, or an electric heat pump for water heating or climate control.

  • Blended TOU-ELEC rate for an off-peak-shifted household ElectrifyNow analysis

    Same 85/10/5 shifted mix and four-against-eight season weighting as E-ELEC. SDG&E names three periods, so the shifted load takes super off-peak as its off-peak share, off-peak as its partial-peak share, and on-peak as peak. No baseline credit on this schedule, so no baseline assumption. Summer = 0.85(0.34545) + 0.10(0.38853) + 0.05(0.71598) = $0.36828. Winter = 0.85(0.33764) + 0.10(0.37682) + 0.05(0.50219) = $0.34979. Season-weighted: (0.36828 + 2 x 0.34979) / 3 = $0.356 per kWh. The most expensive electrification schedule of the five, which is not a surprise -- SDG&E has the most expensive electricity in the state.

    Based on: San Diego Gas & Electric — Schedule TOU-ELEC total rates table, domestic time-of-use for households with electric vehicles, energy storage, or electric heat pumps

  • Schedule TOU-DR1 total rates table, residential time of use service

    San Diego Gas & Electric · effective 2026-06-01

    SDG&E's own sheet says this is the standard schedule for residential customers and that a typical household is most likely on it. Total electric rate, all components. Summer: on-peak $0.68459, off-peak $0.46392, super off-peak $0.37660 per kWh. Winter: on-peak $0.61014, off-peak $0.52843, super off-peak $0.43767 per kWh. Baseline adjustment credit of $0.10663 per kWh up to 130% of the baseline allocation. Base Services Charge $0.79343/day standard, $0.39688/day for DRAH and FERA -- identical to TOU-ELEC's, which is why switching schedule does not move SDG&E's fixed charge.

  • Blended TOU-DR1 rate for a household that has not electrified ElectrifyNow analysis

    Unshifted 25/75 peak/off-peak split as in the other default-schedule derivations. The off-peak share averages the two cheap periods, off-peak and super off-peak. Summer: off-peak family (0.46392 + 0.37660)/2 = 0.42026 against on-peak 0.68459, giving 0.25(0.68459) + 0.75(0.42026) = $0.48634. Winter: off-peak family (0.52843 + 0.43767)/2 = 0.48305 against on-peak 0.61014, giving 0.25(0.61014) + 0.75(0.48305) = $0.51482. Season-weighted: (0.48634 + 2 x 0.51482) / 3 = $0.50533 before the baseline credit. Applying the published $0.10663 credit to the half of consumption assumed to sit within 130% of baseline: 0.50533 - 0.5(0.10663) = $0.452 per kWh. As a sanity check this lands within a cent of SDG&E's reported bundled residential average of about 45.7 cents/kWh for 2026, which is reassuring for a figure built from a load-shape assumption.

    Based on: San Diego Gas & Electric — Schedule TOU-DR1 total rates table, residential time of use service

  • Residential Time-of-Day Service, Rate Schedule R-TOD

    Sacramento Municipal Utility District · effective 2026-01-01

    Time-of-Day (5-8 p.m.) rate, category RT02, which the schedule states is the standard rate for SMUD's residential customers. Rate column effective January 1, 2026 (the schedule also prints May 1, 2025 and January 1, 2027 columns). Summer (June-September): peak $0.3765, mid-peak $0.2139, off-peak $0.1550 per kWh. Non-summer (October-May): peak $0.1776, off-peak $0.1285 per kWh. Peak is weekdays 5-8pm; all other hours including weekends and holidays are off-peak. System Infrastructure Fixed Charge $27.00 per month per meter. A Plug-In Electric Vehicle Credit of -$0.0150/kWh is available to customers with a registered plug-in vehicle. Adopted by Resolution No. 25-06-15 on June 19, 2025. There is no electrification-gated schedule: the alternatives are a Fixed Rate, an optional Low Use rate restricted to service of 125 amps or less, and optional Critical Peak Pricing.

  • SMUD Time-of-Day rate for a load-shifting household ElectrifyNow analysis

    The same schedule as smud-rtod-default, priced on a shifted load rather than an unshifted one, because SMUD has no separate electrification schedule to move onto. Summer uses the standard 85/10/5 off-peak/mid-peak/peak mix: 0.85(0.1550) + 0.10(0.2139) + 0.05(0.3765) = $0.17197. Non-summer has only two periods and its peak is just three hours on weekdays, so a shifted household lands at 95/5: 0.95(0.1285) + 0.05(0.1776) = $0.13096. Season-weighted four summer months against eight non-summer: (0.17197 + 2 x 0.13096) / 3 = $0.145 per kWh. The 1.2 cent gap to the default figure is load shifting alone and must not be presented as a rate switch.

    Based on: Sacramento Municipal Utility District — Residential Time-of-Day Service, Rate Schedule R-TOD

  • SMUD Time-of-Day rate for today's unshifted household ElectrifyNow analysis

    SMUD's peak window is three hours (5-8pm weekdays) rather than the five hours the IOU schedules use, so the 25% unshifted peak share applied elsewhere in this file would overstate it. We use 15% peak, 20% mid-peak and 65% off-peak in summer: 0.15(0.3765) + 0.20(0.2139) + 0.65(0.1550) = $0.20001. Non-summer has two periods only, at 15% peak and 85% off-peak: 0.15(0.1776) + 0.85(0.1285) = $0.13587. Season-weighted: (0.20001 + 2 x 0.13587) / 3 = $0.157 per kWh.

    Based on: Sacramento Municipal Utility District — Residential Time-of-Day Service, Rate Schedule R-TOD

  • Residential electric rates, Rate Schedule R-1A and Rate Schedule R-1B

    Los Angeles Department of Water and Power · effective Base rates effective 2019-07-01, adjustment factors revised quarterly

    R-1A is the default tiered rate, three tiers, no time-of-day pricing, with a tiered monthly Power Access Charge of $2.30, $7.90 and $22.70 and a $10 minimum monthly charge. Total consumption charges including adjustment factors: Jan-May tier 1 $0.22296, tier 2 and 3 $0.28155; June tier 1 $0.22765, tier 2 $0.28624, tier 3 $0.37325; Jul-Sep tier 1 $0.24306, tier 2 $0.30165, tier 3 $0.38866; Oct-Dec tier 1 $0.24604, tier 2 and 3 $0.30463. R-1B is the opt-in time-of-use rate, no tiers, $12.00 monthly service charge: Jan-May high peak and low peak $0.25172, base $0.22818; June high peak $0.31481, low peak $0.25641, base $0.22897; Jul-Sep high peak $0.33022, low peak $0.27182, base $0.24438; Oct-Dec high peak and low peak $0.27480, base $0.25126. Tier breakpoints differ between the cooler coastal Zone 1 and the hotter Zone 2 but the per-kWh prices do not. LADWP's EV provision is a discount on separately metered charging and so is not an alternative whole-home schedule.

  • Blended LADWP R-1B time-of-use rate for a load-shifting household ElectrifyNow analysis

    LADWP prices by four month-groups rather than two seasons, so this is weighted by month count (Jan-May 5, June 1, Jul-Sep 3, Oct-Dec 3) instead of the four-against-eight weighting used elsewhere. The standard 85/10/5 shifted mix maps onto base, low peak and high peak. Jan-May = 0.85(0.22818) + 0.10(0.25172) + 0.05(0.25172) = $0.23171. June = 0.85(0.22897) + 0.10(0.25641) + 0.05(0.31481) = $0.23601. Jul-Sep = 0.85(0.24438) + 0.10(0.27182) + 0.05(0.33022) = $0.25142. Oct-Dec = 0.85(0.25126) + 0.10(0.27480) + 0.05(0.27480) = $0.25479. Month-weighted: (5 x 0.23171 + 0.23601 + 3 x 0.25142 + 3 x 0.25479) / 12 = $0.243 per kWh.

    Based on: Los Angeles Department of Water and Power — Residential electric rates, Rate Schedule R-1A and Rate Schedule R-1B

  • Blended LADWP R-1A default tiered rate ElectrifyNow analysis

    R-1A has no time-of-day structure at all, so no load-shifting assumption enters this figure and only the tier blend does. We assume 60% of consumption in tier 1 and 40% in tier 2, and none in tier 3 -- a household reaching tier 3 is unusual before electrifying, and this is the pre-electrification figure. Month-weighted as for R-1B. Jan-May = 0.6(0.22296) + 0.4(0.28155) = $0.24640. June = 0.6(0.22765) + 0.4(0.28624) = $0.25109. Jul-Sep = 0.6(0.24306) + 0.4(0.30165) = $0.26650. Oct-Dec = 0.6(0.24604) + 0.4(0.30463) = $0.26948. Month-weighted: (5 x 0.24640 + 0.25109 + 3 x 0.26650 + 3 x 0.26948) / 12 = $0.258 per kWh.

    Based on: Los Angeles Department of Water and Power — Residential electric rates, Rate Schedule R-1A and Rate Schedule R-1B

  • Retail prices for gasoline, all grades, all formulations, San Francisco (monthly)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration · effective July 2026 (released 2026-08-18)

  • Retail prices for gasoline, all grades, all formulations, Los Angeles (monthly)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration · effective July 2026, for consistency with the San Francisco figure

    Los Angeles monthly average of $5.364/gallon in July 2026, against $5.539 in San Francisco the same month. Both regions are deliberately read from the SAME month: this series is volatile month to month -- Los Angeles ran $4.124 in January 2026 and $6.036 in May -- so taking the two regions from different months would produce a north/south gap that is mostly calendar noise. Later months are available and both regions have risen since; refresh them together or not at all.

  • ElectrifyNow energy-price escalation assumption: 2% a year in real terms ElectrifyNow assumption

    A modelling choice about the future, not a measurement of anything, so there is nothing to link to and pretending otherwise would be worse than saying so. Payback ran at zero escalation until now, which is the genuinely pessimistic end -- it assumes a therm costs the same in 2046 as in 2026, which nobody believes. Two percent a year ABOVE general inflation is chosen for three reasons. It is well below what California households have actually seen: PG&E's residential gas and electric rates have risen far faster than CPI over the past decade, and adopting the observed rate would have made every payback figure look better than we are willing to claim. It is applied to gas, electricity and petrol alike, because we have no defensible basis for assuming the fuels diverge and a differential escalation is the easiest way to manufacture a saving. And it is stated in real terms because the payback arithmetic adds up undiscounted future dollars: a nominal escalation on top of undiscounted dollars would count inflation twice. The figure is the single assumption in this file that a sceptical reader should push back on hardest, and holding it at zero reproduces the old, slower payback exactly.

  • ElectrifyNow generic residential solar pricing estimate, 2026 California ElectrifyNow estimate

    Our own point estimates for the two solar figures this site publishes -- a generic levelised cost per self-generated kilowatt-hour, and the fraction of annual household load a typical rooftop array actually serves. Neither is a researched statistic and neither is a quote. They are informed by NREL and LBNL residential photovoltaic cost and capacity-factor work and by California Solar Initiative production data, but no specific figure here is taken from any of those, because the numbers are our judgement of what a generic California roof does rather than any one dataset's median. Solar is priced on this site as a lens -- a second price for a kilowatt-hour -- and deliberately has no sizing, no panel count, no installed cost and no per-climate-zone production table, so a single defensible pair of figures is the whole of what is needed. Deliberately carries no url and no verified_on: there is no document to check and no date on which anybody checked one.

  • ElectrifyNow assumed vintage of the gas equipment a household is replacing: about 10 years old ElectrifyNow assumption

    The report claims to measure savings against the equipment a household has now rather than against a new gas appliance, and it describes that equipment as roughly ten years old. That is a modelling choice about a household we have not visited, so it is an assumption rather than a measurement. Ten years is chosen as the point at which the question the report answers actually arises: a gas storage water heater's service life is about 10-15 years and a furnace's about 15-20, so a ten-year-old system is one whose owner is starting to think about replacing it, which is exactly the household this report is for. The nameplate efficiencies that go with that vintage are not our invention -- 80% AFUE has been the federal minimum for non-weatherized gas furnaces since 2013 and 78% before that, so any furnace of this age is an 80% AFUE unit, and 0.60 EF is the corresponding standard for a 40-gallon gas storage tank. Ten years is also the CONSERVATIVE end of the plausible range: an older baseline would be less efficient and would make electrifying look better, so choosing the younger figure understates the saving rather than overstating it. What this assumption does NOT cover is how much a unit of this age has degraded in service -- the derated in-use efficiencies of 72% delivered for the furnace and 55% for the tank are separate figures with their own derivations, and both of those are our engineering judgement rather than a measured field result. See furnace-delivered-efficiency and gas-water-heater-efficiency, which say so and are rated low confidence for precisely this reason.

  • 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)

    DNV GL for the California Energy Commission · published 2021

    Single-family natural gas unit energy consumption, Table 4 (n=17,269).

  • Space heating gas use, San Francisco single-family home ElectrifyNow analysis

    RASS reports a statewide single-family space heating figure of about 191 therms a year. San Francisco's marine climate uses materially less space heat than the state average -- mild wet winters, and a heating season that never fully switches off but never gets severe -- so we redistribute the statewide total toward a coastal profile, giving about 116 therms. This adjustment is ours, not RASS's.

    Based on: DNV GL for the California Energy Commission — 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)

  • Water heating gas use, San Francisco single-family home ElectrifyNow analysis

    RASS reports a statewide single-family water heating figure of about 260 therms a year, at 94% gas saturation -- the largest single gas end use in California homes. Hot water demand is essentially climate-independent, so it stays near the statewide figure while space heating is adjusted down for the coastal climate. That is why hot water, not heating, is the dominant gas load in a typical San Francisco home.

    Based on: DNV GL for the California Energy Commission — 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)

  • Heat Pump Water Heater Field Study Report

    Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (Ecotope)

    50-site field study. Measured average installed COP of 2.0 overall, ranging from 1.9 for garage and basement installations to 2.3 for units in conditioned interior space -- well below the 3.5 nameplate UEF, because that rating is measured at 67.5F ambient air.

  • Installed heat pump water heater COP, San Francisco ElectrifyNow analysis

    We use 2.3, the upper end of the NEEA field range. NEEA measured in the Pacific Northwest; San Francisco garages and utility closets run warmer year-round than Seattle's, and heat pump water heater performance tracks the ambient air temperature around the tank. We deliberately do not use the 3.5 nameplate UEF, which is measured at a 67.5F ambient that an installed unit rarely sees in winter.

    Based on: Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (Ecotope) — Heat Pump Water Heater Field Study Report

  • Delivered efficiency of an existing gas water heater ElectrifyNow analysis

    A gas storage water heater is rated around 0.60 EF when new. The tanks being replaced are typically 10-15 years old, with sediment on the bottom and a degraded flue, so we assume about 0.55 of the fuel energy actually ends up as hot water.

    Based on: DNV GL for the California Energy Commission — 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)

  • Delivered efficiency of an existing gas furnace ElectrifyNow analysis

    AFUE is measured at the appliance and excludes duct losses. A typical 80% AFUE furnace pushes 130-140F air through ducts that often run through unconditioned attics and crawlspaces, and duct conduction and leakage losses scale with that temperature difference. We assume about 72% of the fuel energy reaches the living space.

    Based on: DNV GL for the California Energy Commission — 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)

  • Seasonal COP of a ducted heat pump in San Francisco ElectrifyNow analysis

    Coastal California winters are mild enough that a modern variable-speed heat pump runs near its rated performance: heating design temperatures sit around 35-40F, so there is little defrost penalty and essentially no call on resistance backup heat. We assume a seasonal COP of 3.7, load-weighted across the heating season so that the coldest months -- when the heat pump performs worst and works hardest -- carry the most weight.

    Based on: DNV GL for the California Energy Commission — 2019 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (CEC-200-2021-005-PO)

  • Highway Statistics 2024, Table VM-2 (state vehicle-miles) and Table MV-1 (state motor-vehicle registrations)

    Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation · effective 2024 data, published January 2026

  • Annual miles driven per vehicle in California ElectrifyNow analysis

    No agency publishes an average annual mileage per vehicle for California directly, so we divide one FHWA table by another: California's total annual vehicle-miles of travel (61,142 million rural plus 264,817 million urban = 325,959 million miles) divided by California's registered motor vehicles (30,940,652) gives 10,535 miles per vehicle per year. Both figures include heavy trucks and exclude motorcycles. For comparison, FHWA's published national figure for light-duty short-wheelbase vehicles is 10,812 miles.

    Based on: Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation — Highway Statistics 2024, Table VM-2 (state vehicle-miles) and Table MV-1 (state motor-vehicle registrations)

  • Highway Statistics 2024, Table VM-1: annual vehicle distance traveled in miles and related data

    Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation · effective 2024 data, updated February 2026

    In-use on-road fleet average for light-duty short-wheelbase vehicles (passenger cars and smaller crossovers), 25.6 mpg across 205.6 million vehicles. This is what the existing fleet actually achieves, not the sticker figure on new cars. Light-duty long-wheelbase vehicles average 18.5 mpg, and all light-duty combined averages 23.4 mpg -- so using the short-wheelbase figure is the conservative choice, because it makes the car being replaced look more efficient than the fleet average.

  • Fuel economy and EV range testing; fuel economy of 2026 electric vehicles

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Energy · effective Model year 2026 ratings, current as of August 2026

    EPA measures EV efficiency at the wall outlet, so charging losses from the cable and the on-board charger are already included.

  • Real-world EV efficiency ElectrifyNow analysis

    EPA combined ratings for high-volume 2026 electric vehicles cluster between 25 and 30 kWh per 100 miles (Tesla Model 3 24-26, Model Y 24-27, Hyundai Ioniq 5 29-30, VW ID.4 30, Nissan Leaf 28-30, Kia EV6 29-30). That is a range of 3.3 to 4.0 miles per kWh. We use 3.3, the conservative end, because EPA ratings do not capture cold-weather and cabin-heating penalties, sustained high-speed driving, or DC fast-charging losses.

    Based on: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Energy — Fuel economy and EV range testing; fuel economy of 2026 electric vehicles

7. Car switch reports

The car switch report answers a narrower question than the rest of this site: what one household spends on the car they drive, against one specific electric car they are considering. Unlike the whole-home figures above, it prices the car itself — it can, because you have named the car — and so it carries a price and a resale value that the rest of the site deliberately does not.

Fuel economy and efficiency come from the EPA's own record for each car. A car's price and your current car's resale value are researched for your request from public listings and valuation guides, and the report labels each as an estimate and shows the range. Everything else is below.

Each report compares the electric car with two alternatives: keeping the car you drive, and buying a newer gas car instead. That car is the best-selling one of the same kind and model year as the electric car: a Toyota Camry for a sedan or hatchback, a Toyota RAV4 for an SUV, a Ford F-150 for a pickup. It is never a hybrid, so in the years those are sold only as hybrids the next best seller stands in: a Toyota Corolla from 2025, a Honda CR-V for 2026. An electric car older than 2019 is set beside the 2019 model. Three ways of looking at the same numbers, all from one month-by-month calculation: what you pay each month; how long until the switch pays for itself, paying cash or financing; and the total cost over 15 years, about the life of a car, so no resale value is credited to any car at the end. The return shown is the yearly rate that the cash put in earns from the running-cost saving.

Gas and electricity prices both rise at the same rate. Repairs are counted on top of scheduled maintenance and grow with each car's age, using Argonne National Laboratory's formula: nothing in a car's first two years, then more each year. The study stops at year 15, so an older car is held at the year-15 figure. The chart also marks the year your car reaches 16, the average lifetime of a car in the same study.

FigureValueFrom
Gas price, when you do not give one$5.75 a gallonour estimate
Scheduled maintenance, gas car$0.101 per milesource
Scheduled maintenance, EV$0.061 per milesource
Repairs, rising with each car's ageNothing in a car's first two years, then more each year to year 15. An SUV pays 91% of a sedan's bill, a pickup 70% and an EV 67%source
Price when new, for a car whose own could not be found$25,000. Each report uses the car's own price when new: yours for a new EV, otherwise its original MSRPsource
Average lifetime of a car, marked on the chart16 yearssource
Loan rate6.0% APRsource
Loan term60 monthssource
Comparison period15 yearssource
Charging price, PG&E$0.22558 per kWh — PG&E's EV2-A rate, off-peak (midnight to 3pm)source
Charging price, SCE$0.28667 per kWh — SCE's TOU-D-PRIME rate, off-peak (9pm to 8am)source
Charging price, SDG&E$0.12 per kWh — SDG&E's EV-TOU-5 rate, super off-peak (midnight to 6am)source
Charging price, SMUD$0.14 per kWh — SMUD's Time-of-Day rate, off-peak (midnight to noon)source
Charging price, LADWP$0.261 per kWh — LADWP's R-1B rate, base period (8pm to 10am)source
  • Electric Schedule EV2, Residential Time-of-Use Service for Plug-In Electric Vehicle Customers (Rate A)

    Pacific Gas and Electric Company · effective 2026-06-01 (Advice 7921-E, D.26-04-036)

    Total bundled energy rates: peak (4-9pm) $0.53809 summer / $0.41099 winter; part-peak (3-4pm and 9pm-midnight) $0.42760 / $0.39428; off-peak $0.22558 both seasons. Base Services Charge $0.79343/day for Income Tier 3.

  • Time-Of-Use Residential Rate Plans: TOU-D-PRIME

    Southern California Edison

    Energy rates as recorded in content/utility-rates.csv, rounded there to the cent. Excludes fixed monthly charges, which the household pays on any schedule.

  • Electric vehicle pricing plans: EV-TOU-5

    San Diego Gas & Electric

    Energy rates as recorded in content/utility-rates.csv, rounded there to the cent. Excludes fixed monthly charges, which the household pays on any schedule.

  • Residential rates: Time-of-Day (5-8 p.m.) Rate

    Sacramento Municipal Utility District

    Energy rates as recorded in content/utility-rates.csv, rounded there to the cent. Excludes fixed monthly charges, which the household pays on any schedule.

  • Residential Rates: Schedule R-1, Rate B (Time-of-Use), Total Consumption Charge

    Los Angeles Department of Water and Power · effective 2026

    2026 Base period charges: January-March 0.25293, April-May 0.24884, June 0.24494, July-September 0.26540, October-December 0.27814. Period hours are on LADWP's Residential Electric Rates page. R-1B service charge $12.00 a month, not included.

  • Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with Different Size Classes and Powertrains (ANL/ESD-21/4), Figure ES-4

    Argonne National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy · effective 2021, 2019 dollars

    Scheduled light-duty maintenance cost per mile from a generalised service schedule: ICEV $0.101, HEV $0.094, PHEV $0.090, BEV $0.061. Scheduled maintenance only, not unscheduled repair -- which is why a car that is already having problems saves more than this.

  • ElectrifyNow California pump price estimate, 2026 ElectrifyNow estimate

    A round figure for what Californians are paying for regular gasoline, set deliberately rather than read from a monthly series, because a published monthly average is stale by the time a report goes out and goes staler every month nobody refreshes it. It carries a review_after date on the figure and the module warns once that date passes. The household's own price always takes precedence.

  • ElectrifyNow auto loan assumption: 6% APR over 60 months ElectrifyNow assumption

    A representative used-car loan for a borrower with good credit, used to show what financing does to the monthly cost and to the payback. The current car's resale value is applied as the down payment and the remainder is financed. A household with a quote of its own should use it: the rate a lender offers depends on credit, term and whether the car is new or used, and none of that is known here.

  • ElectrifyNow repair cost fallback: a car with no researched price when new is priced as $25,000 ElectrifyNow assumption

    Argonne's repair equation rises with a car's price when new. Each report uses the car's own figure: the household's price for a new EV, or the original MSRP researched from published pages. This fallback applies only when neither exists, so that a report still renders, and the operator is warned to research the figure before sending. $25,000 is about what a mainstream sedan or small SUV cost new in the years the study's data covers (model years 2014 to 2019).

  • ElectrifyNow used-vehicle price and resale estimates, 2026 California ElectrifyNow estimate

    Sample prices and resale values for the cars this module ships with, informed by listing and valuation guides (Kelley Blue Book, CarGurus and dealer listings in autumn 2026) but not taken from any one of them, because a used car's value depends on its mileage, condition and trim far more than any guide resolves. These exist so the module can be demonstrated and tested. A household's report uses figures researched for their specific car, which replace these.

  • ElectrifyNow comparison period: 15 years ElectrifyNow assumption

    Fifteen years is roughly the life of a car, so every total in the report runs that long and no car is credited with a resale value at the end. It is also the point past which we say a purchase does not pay back on running costs rather than quote a longer figure.

  • 2019 Toyota Camry LE Sedan 4D values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2020 Toyota Camry LE Sedan 4D values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2021 Toyota Camry LE Sedan 4D values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2022 Toyota Camry LE Sedan 4D values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2023 Toyota Camry LE Sedan 4D values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2024 Toyota Camry LE Sedan 4D values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2019 Toyota RAV4 LE Sport Utility 4D (AWD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2020 Toyota RAV4 LE Sport Utility 4D (AWD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2021 Toyota RAV4 LE Sport Utility 4D (AWD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2022 Toyota RAV4 LE Sport Utility 4D (AWD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2023 Toyota RAV4 LE Sport Utility 4D (AWD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2024 Toyota RAV4 LE Sport Utility 4D (AWD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2025 Toyota RAV4 LE Sport Utility 4D (AWD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2019 Ford F150 SuperCrew Cab XLT Pickup 4D 5 1/2 ft (4WD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2020 Ford F150 SuperCrew Cab XLT Pickup 4D 5 1/2 ft (4WD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2021 Ford F150 SuperCrew Cab XLT Pickup 4D 5 1/2 ft (4WD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2022 Ford F150 SuperCrew Cab XLT Pickup 4D 5 1/2 ft (4WD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2023 Ford F150 SuperCrew Cab XLT Pickup 4D 5 1/2 ft (4WD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2024 Ford F150 SuperCrew Cab XLT Pickup 4D 5 1/2 ft (4WD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2025 Ford F150 SuperCrew Cab XLT Pickup 4D 5 1/2 ft (4WD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2026 Ford F150 SuperCrew Cab XLT Pickup 4D 5 1/2 ft (4WD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2025 Toyota Corolla LE Sedan 4D values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2026 Toyota Corolla LE Sedan 4D values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • 2026 Honda CR-V LX Sport Utility 4D (AWD) values

    Kelley Blue Book

    Used-car values as shown for ZIP 95050 (Santa Clara, CA), the page default.

  • ElectrifyNow comparison gas cars: the best-selling US non-hybrid sedan, SUV and pickup ElectrifyNow assumption

    A household weighing an EV is usually also weighing an ordinary gas car of the same kind and age, so the report sets the EV beside the most popular one: the Toyota Camry for a sedan or hatchback, the Toyota RAV4 for an SUV, and the Ford F-150 for a pickup, each from the EV's model year. Those three led their segments in US sales in every full calendar year from 2019 to 2025, per the manufacturers' and trade press year-end sales reports. The comparison is with a conventional gas car, so a hybrid is never used. The Camry has been sold only as a hybrid since the 2025 model year, so 2025 and 2026 use the Toyota Corolla, the next best-selling sedan in 2025 (248,088 sold, against 238,661 Honda Civics). The RAV4 is hybrid-only from the 2026 model year, so 2026 uses the Honda CR-V, the next best-selling SUV in 2025 (403,768 sold). Trims are the ones Kelley Blue Book prices by default: Camry LE, Corolla LE, RAV4 LE all-wheel drive, CR-V LX all-wheel drive, F-150 XLT SuperCrew four-wheel drive.

  • 2019 Chevrolet Bolt EV LT specs & colors

    Cars.com

    Starting MSRP for the trim as the page prints it. The page does not say whether a destination charge is included.

  • 2019 Chevrolet Bolt EV

    Kelley Blue Book

    Original MSRP for the trim, from the page's "Original MSRP" table. The page does not say whether a destination charge is included.

  • 2014 Ford Focus SE specs & colors

    Cars.com

    Starting MSRP for the trim as the page prints it. The page does not say whether a destination charge is included.

  • 2014 Ford Focus

    Kelley Blue Book

    Original MSRP for the trim, from the page's "Original MSRP" table. The page does not say whether a destination charge is included.

  • 2019 Toyota Camry LE specs & colors

    Cars.com

    Starting MSRP for the trim as the page prints it. The page does not say whether a destination charge is included.

  • 2019 Toyota Camry

    Kelley Blue Book

    Original MSRP for the trim, from the page's "Original MSRP" table. The page does not say whether a destination charge is included.

  • 2026 Honda CR-V LX AWD specs & colors

    Cars.com

    Starting MSRP for the trim as the page prints it. The page does not say whether a destination charge is included.

  • 2026 Honda CR-V Starts at $32,315

    Kelley Blue Book

    Article dated 2025-05-21. Its price column is "MSRP Plus $1,395 Destination Charge", so this quote includes destination where the Cars.com one may not.

These are averages. Yours will be different.

Everything on this page describes a typical San Francisco single-family home, because a public page has to pick a house. Your postcode, your appliances and how far you drive are not typical. Send us those and the same arithmetic runs on your answers instead — generated from this same configuration, so your report and this page cannot disagree — then checked by a person and emailed to you as a PDF. We can do that today across Pacific Gas & Electric territory, 1,227 of California’s 2,654 postcodes.